Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: Kaufen
seit: 26.04.2024
Kursziel: EUR 10.00
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Henry Wendisch
FY'24e to see improvements in top and bottom-line
Topic: LAIQON recently released mixed final Q4 results. Moreover, the
outlook of performance fees for FY24e, poses LAIQON for another year of
solid top-line growth and profitability improvements.
Final results in line: LAIQON released sales and EBITDA prelims in February
and both final figures did
not deviate. What's new is the net income, which came in slightlyworse than
expected at -12.8m (eNuW: € -10.8m) due to (1) € 7.3m negative one-off
effects (i.e., € 1.8m non-cash revaluations of limited partners in LAIC and
€ 5.5m interest expenses for purchase price allocations), lowering the
financial result to € -8.9m (eNuW: € -1.5m) and (2) better than expected
tax expense of € -7.1m (eNuW: € -2m).
AuM growth on track: At end of Q1'24, LAIQON reported € 6.4bn AuMs on group
level, an increase of € 300m vs. Y/E'23 (€ 6.1bn). While the split between
net capital inflow and valuation gains is indisclosed, we estimate c. €
150m to be performance related and the remaining € 150m to stem from
capital inflows across the three segments. For Y/E'24e, we estimate AuMs to
stand at € 7bn (+14% yoy), meaning that € 600m (€ 200m per quarter) are
needed to reach our estimate.
Token placement started: In order to secure further outside growth
financing and allow for an independent valuation of LAIQON's subgroup LAIC,
the placement of the 'LAIC-Token 24' has been started in March. This should
lead to proceeds of up to € 6.8m for LAIQON and should value the LAIC
subgroup at € 65m, of which LAIQON should hold 80.8% post transaction.
Further improvements for FY'24e: Based on our 14% yoy AuM growth estimate,
we expect sales to develop accordingly and increase to € 34.4m (+12% yoy).
This should in return lead to an improved bottom-line thanks to the high
fix-cost base of LAIQON's business model. We expect EBITDA to improve by
2.5m from € -4.7 in FY'23 to € -2.2m in FY'24e, implying an incremental
EBITDA margin of 67%. Further upside could stem from performance fees (not
included in our estimates) thanks to capital markets currently developing
in LAIQON's favour. For FY'25e, we expect a positive EBITDA of € 3.4m
thanks to first full-year effects of the Union Investment cooperation but
also thanks to organic growth and thus operating leverage at the other
segments.
In our view, the current valuation does not reflect LAIQON's potential.
Thus, we reiterate our BUY recommendation with unchanged PT of € 10.00,
based on DFC. - Analyst change -
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/29529.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.
Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: [email protected]
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
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